April 29, 2012

The positive side of variance!

Variance is a funny thing. I went through 4 or 5 months of what seemed like continuous pain with no sign of reprieve. But apparently I've paid my dues, and I'm running really well recently. Overall I'm probably running to expectation, it just took 6 or 7 months to even itself out.

That is why getting frustrated with the short term in poker is so futile. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with the short term plenty (as you'll know if you read this blog regularly!), it's just generally a waste of energy.

The graph below shows the extremity of what I'm talking about. Okay, this graph includes all the turbo MTTs I have played (as well as SNGs) which are naturally high variance, and doesn't show rakeback, but still...

epitomised, All Games, PokerStars, Last 6 Months
It's very possible that I'm playing a whole lot better now than I was during the bad patch, as I really think success breeds confidence in poker. Obviously thought I'm not playing that much better, I'm just running hot as well.

PokerStars taking over FTP speculation
I'm eager to find out the reality of the possible PokerStars takeover of Full Tilt. I think if it were to happen it would probably be a good thing in general. It obviously would be for anybody with money on Full Tilt. The only downside I can think of is it diluting the player pool, but Full Tilt and PokerStars managed to run alongside each other perfectly well for a long time so I can't see that being a huge problem.

The thing is that PokerStars is almost perfect, certainly in terms of software. So it seems almost silly to have a slightly inferior (imo) software running alongside. They will probably end up improving everything though, so then potentially you just have two virtually identical poker sites, which seems a little silly. I'm also interested in how the VIP system might work. If PokerStars owns both sites, will they merge the VIP system somehow? At least if I'm not able to make it as a PokerStars Team Online Pro, maybe the chance is there to become an FTP Red (Spade?) Pro?! Although if PokerStars have any sense (which they obv do), I don't think we'll be seeing quite so many sponsored players on there!

It will certainly be interesting to see see how things play out...

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5 Comments to "The positive side of variance!"

rubbish said...

I'd sell my soul to run hot for one day.

DM said...

merging the VIP system would be hugely foolish! FTP has to be the exact chalk to PS's cheese that it always was to be attracting different players. So that's rb not VIP, and more importantly the different SNG formats staying as they were will be critical. Also the RNG works totally differently.

Patrick said...

Glad to hear things have improved. Keep it up!



Anonymous said...

i find it confusing that everyone seems to think pokerstars would operate2 poker sites along side each other.

it would go against most european countries competition regulations, e.g. the same person cannot have an interest in both liverpool and arsenal football clubs.

the only way i could see them running 2 sites would be if they never run them in the same territories, so pokerstars would never run in the U.S. and just FTP running there. conversely, for the rest of the world we would have pokerstars running and no access to FTP.

perhaps i'm wrong, but i'm not.


Unknown said...

Lol @ rubbish :)

Ty Patrick

Ragz - Was just thinking it would suck to be Supernova on Stars and them implement a similar thing on Full Tilt and be a Bronze Star there!

John - Hmm could be a good point - I have no idea though!