I have been in a bit of a quandary over the last couple of days. I have been going all out for Supernova Elite this year, and as I type this I am on pace with 31,700 VPPs. Unfortunately though my results have been very poor. I'm actually losing over the games I've played so far. This might not be such a concern over as short a period as 11 days, but my results have now been poor for several months. Consequently I have been unsure what direction to take.
My "SNE schedule" requires me to mix 6-man, 9-man and 18-man SNGs together. With different strategies this is quite a tall order, and my results started to downward trend not long after I started me playing a mix of these games last year. Maybe I'm just not capable of playing all games well, or cope with the required amount of tables.
I also question whether the schedule I have been keeping is sustainable for a whole year. Yes, I've been coping well with keeping on pace without it being too much of a a burden, but I have been working very hard, getting up at 5.45am and playing all day almost every day. With Liz due to give birth in 3 weeks time, I think I was being overly optimistic that I could stick to this schedule for the whole year.
My game seems to need a lot of work, it's hard to imagine that this break-even run is a result only of bad variance. I've been reviewing my play and had some review sessions with a SNG hero, but it perhaps hasn't been enough, and a SNE schedule doesn't really leave me a huge amount of time to work on my game if I expect to be able to spend time with my wife and son as well.
Consequently, I have made the early decision to forget about SNE. Right now, becoming a winning player again is more of a priority, and I think not having the stress of needing to stay on pace will help me.
I might not make as much money for the year this way, but I think I've gone for a quality of life option here. It's nice to think that I will be able to take a week off when the baby comes, and that I can perhaps venture out for the odd live tournament, which would be pointless when going for SNE.
It feels like a bit of a cop-out to quit after only 12 days! So I'm a little embarrassed, but meh. Now I can concentrate on playing slightly easier games, perhaps play less tables, and make things easier for myself by mixing less formats. As long as I can keep myself motivated to put in decent volume, and actually start winning again, then I'll be happy enough.
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8 Comments to "To SNE or not to SNE?..."
haha im ahead of you with 70k VPPs at least ur swing wasnt as brutal as mine i started off the yr down 7.5k and close to 7k in 60s 18s alone ffs
Sick grinding! I'm on a $9k downswing in $60 18-mans currently, hope it turns around for us both!
yeah im starting to heat up :)
Good luck in ur goals.I'm sick of poker too and haven't played in 6 months. Maybe I'll get my motivation form this place
your blog is the single biggest source of referrals to mine lol cheers
@james atkin
your down at 60$+ is just variance. 18man have a higher standard deviation. a 1k sample is nothing. you were a substantial winner below 60$, so no way you are a loser at 60$. just keep playing
@DM hehe, sweet
@anon
You could well be right. But losing 150 buy-ins over 1500 games must be the very bottom of variance.
Have dropped stakes and am fairing better, needed to do that for the confidence boost I think :)
i saw a simulation at 2+2
with a 2.5% roi after 1k games with SD 2: worst possible result: -165 BI (95% confidence interval).
so yes. its extremly unlikely, but not impossible. really ton of bad luck.
in hypers guys have several k stretches with a comparable SD. 1500 games is no sample and after 5k games you have 2% roi, thats ok, but no samplesize. of course its really sick, i'd puke too, but the down is not impossible . gl
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