January 31, 2012

Week 4 review - "Confidence Boost"

January 22nd - 28th

I only put in a low volume week this week in SNGs, which was a result of me dabbling in the TCOOP, and taking a bit of time off to help my wife out who is now very heavily pregnant. I had some positive TCOOP results, which I will write about in my next blog post where I am going to review how MTTs went for me in January.

After what feels like months and months of running bad, I am currently running really good. Dropping down in stakes, forgetting about SNE and avoiding STTs has worked out really well for me so far. Although we're dealing with small samples here, this graph still paints a telling before/after picture (I quit SNE, STTs and $60+ 18-mans somwhere in the red circle).

My 6-man to 45-man SNGs Jan. 2012

Although I'm running above expectation over my last 1000 games, it is definitely the confidence booster I needed. I was feeling pretty miserable about poker and questioning myself as a poker player over the last few months, but this has been a catalyst to regaining my confidence, which I think is important as I believe you tend to play better when playing confidently.

It's a shame that results are the only tangible gauge that we have to measure how we are playing in poker.
Results are riddled with variance, and therefore provide unreliable data over the short, medium and occasionally even the long term. I think it is so difficult not to be affected by results, but the consequence is your mind-set is going to be hugely affected by variance.

I'm just hoping this positive variance continues :-)

January 22, 2012

Week 3 review - "Mini-Heater"

January 15th - 21st

I ended up being quite busy this week, and I only managed to put in about 2 and a half days work so my volume was rather pathetic. I switched from playing 6, 9, 18 and 45-mans to playing 18, 45 and 180-mans. I also dropped down in stakes, avoiding the $60 18-mans that I have been doing so terribly in, and playing $15 18-mans in their place. I felt a lot more comfortable, managing the number of tables better, and being a little more sure of my ranges.

It felt kind of ironic that I earned 3 times as much as I did in the first 11 days (~75 hours) as I did in these measly 2.5 days (~20 hours), but that's poker/variance for you. It was a relief to go on somewhat of a heater and definitely a boost to my weathered confidence. I will be trying to put a decent amount of hours in before my second born arrives sometime in the next 3 weeks!

January 15, 2012

Week 2 review - "Epic Fail"

January 8th - 14th

This week essentially left me break-even after rake-back of hard grind which inevitably led me to quitting my SNE chase as I have already written about. Yes this could just have been variance, and in some ways it might have seemed a melodramatic decision, but I felt like I was going to find the grind required too difficult.

With the games so full of regs, and my game seemingly not at it's best, I felt like game selecting and not having to play 6-mans and 9-man SNGs, (which I am less familiar with) was a good decision.

I ended up taking the second half of the week off to "recharge" after a gruelling 11 days.

<--- Week 1 review | Week 3 review --->

January 12, 2012

To SNE or not to SNE?...

I have been in a bit of a quandary over the last couple of days. I have been going all out for Supernova Elite this year, and as I type this I am on pace with 31,700 VPPs. Unfortunately though my results have been very poor. I'm actually losing over the games I've played so far. This might not be such a concern over as short a period as 11 days, but my results have now been poor for several months. Consequently I have been unsure what direction to take.

My "SNE schedule" requires me to mix 6-man, 9-man and 18-man SNGs together. With different strategies this is quite a tall order, and my results started to downward trend not long after I started me playing a mix of these games last year. Maybe I'm just not capable of playing all games well, or cope with the required amount of tables.

I also question whether the schedule I have been keeping is sustainable for a whole year. Yes, I've been coping well with keeping on pace without it being too much of a a burden, but I have been working very hard, getting up at 5.45am and playing all day almost every day. With Liz due to give birth in 3 weeks time, I think I was being overly optimistic that I could stick to this schedule for the whole year.

My game seems to need a lot of work, it's hard to imagine that this break-even run is a result only of bad variance. I've been reviewing my play and had some review sessions with a SNG hero, but it perhaps hasn't been enough, and a SNE schedule doesn't really leave me a huge amount of time to work on my game if I expect to be able to spend time with my wife and son as well.

Consequently, I have made the early decision to forget about SNE. Right now, becoming a winning player again is more of a priority, and I think not having the stress of needing to stay on pace will help me.

I might not make as much money for the year this way, but I think I've gone for a quality of life option here. It's nice to think that I will be able to take a week off when the baby comes, and that I can perhaps venture out for the odd live tournament, which would be pointless when going for SNE.

It feels like a bit of a cop-out to quit after only 12 days! So I'm a little embarrassed, but meh. Now I can concentrate on playing slightly easier games, perhaps play less tables, and make things easier for myself by mixing less formats. As long as I can keep myself motivated to put in decent volume, and actually start winning again, then I'll be happy enough.

January 08, 2012

Week 1 review - "Not good enough"

January 1st - 7th
This first week was pretty disheartening, only just about managing to break-even after rakeback. I don't really want to be one of those guys who works their titties off to make Supernova Elite but only breaks even. Okay, it's still a lot of money, but I don't think the hourly rate I would be earning would be enough to warrant all that hard work.

The only real positive to take away from this first week is that I managed to stay ahead of SNE pace and set-up a nice steady routine. I just plan to keep my head down, review when I can, and hope things turn around next week....

<--- 2011 review | Week 2 review --->