November 25, 2011

Dear Father Christmas...

It's been a while since I updated. About a month ago I decided to move over to 45-mans and 180-mans after having my soul crushed in 18-mans. I've gradually been weaning 18-mans back in for a number of reasons.

  1. I think they are my best game
  2. I am currently #1 in the 2011 Sharkscope leaderboard for "All games $16-$35", and would like to ensure I ship the platinum star
  3. I am at almost certain I am going to pursue Supernova Elite next year, with 18-mans being the main game I plan to play.

I think dipping my feet into some 45-mans and 180-mans has helped freshen up my game a little bit, and it's been good to avoid seeing the same regs at the tables every day, but I feel comfortable enough to pick and choose which of these games I want to play dependant on how I'm feeling each day.

If you have been following my blog recently, you will know I've really been struggling over the last few weeks.
After a 6 week break over the summer in which I moved house, got married and went on my honeymoon, I have had my most testing time in poker ever.

The funny thing is, if you look at some of my results since Sept 1st 2011, you might wonder WTF I'm complaining about, as it would appear I am doing very well:

Unfortunately, that isn't the whole story. I'm on an insano-brutal-getthefkouttahere-death run in $60 and $100 18-mans, and am on an ever-pleasant 200 buy-in downswing in $15 180-mans:

I really don't understand how I can be such a consistent winning player in the lower buy-in 18-mans but be dying a death in the higher buy-ins 18-mans. I don't believe myself to be playing them any differently, and I don't think they are particularly tougher. Is it really possible to be running this far below expectation?  I'm not so worried about 180-mans as there is no way I'm not beating those games, and 200 buy-in downswings aren't out of the ordinary. It doesn't make it any less painful though.

You might wonder why I am continuing to subject myself to the pain of the higher buy-ins when I can apparently do perfectly well for myself in the lower buy-ins. I think it's mainly because I refuse to give in to variance. I'm trying so hard not to be results orientated. I know I'm not a -12% ROI player FFS. That would make me a fish. Even if I had many leaks I couldn't be doing that badly.

I've found myself hunting through hand histories, instilled with paranoia that I'm somehow getting sat out on random tables and that's why my win-rate is so disastrous in places, but I haven't been able to find anything like that.

All I can do is work on my game, try and put as much volume in as I can before Christmas so that variance evens itself more quickly, and pray to the Poker Gods that my luck changes.

Dear Father Christmas,

For this Christmas, I want my sick graph back.

Pretty please,

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3 Comments to "Dear Father Christmas..."

Quadchrazs said...

they be exploiting you obv

Agasajo said...

don't get me wrong but i'm really happy seeing you all paranoid having doubts because as almost any player i've had problems with that (and if the #1 player in profits is having the same problem i can't feel to bad) but it's obv just variance man as you said you can't be playing them that bad to have -12% ROI the sick upswing will come eventually.

i also want to change to 45-mans and 180-mans because there's a bit more money there i think but yeah you have to go for the star and decide what to do in january.

if i changed i would still try to play at least 100 games at the 18-mans because of the BOP not saying that BOP makes it better than just playing 180-mans but idk it's a good promo your game stays fresh and a good extra when you hit i might win my first one this week =D (brag).

oh and by the way i think playing the 6max while playing the other games is to much 6max is really different.

Anonymous said...

SNGs are dead. Time to move over to cash, me thinks. MeleaB (UK cash player).