As you can tell from the graph at the bottom of this post, I've been having a bit of a torrid time of it the last couple of days. These games are so high variance. I thought about jacking it all in at least twice, but every time I was near that point I would get some donkey gift me the chip lead in a tournament and think "surely this will be profitable in the long run"
I am no better off financially than I was at the end of day 1, and at the end of day 2, which really sucks considering I have put a decent number of hours in. However I have been able to draw some conclusions over the last couple of days...
I am exactly at $0 profit and 0% ROI for the 180 man games; I have run really bad in these, and whenever I've had a sniff of a deep cash I've got screwed over with 2 tables left or something. I have decided that the 180 mans are just too high variance for me. I like steady profit curves, which is why I think my roots are in Heads Up STTs, where variance isn't too bad. This experiment is essentially about finding a steady income to pay the bills that is an alternative to Heads Up SNGs, and to find a game where I feel I can put more hours in. I am getting a good number of 2/3 sessions in, and playing a solid 10 or 11 tables at a time without getting bored, which is good.
Although I don't think I can deal with the 180 man swings, I have got a 25% ROI in the 45 man tournaments I have played, which from research I have done seems to be a very solid winrate. Obviously 160 games is still a small sample, but I think I can safely say I'm +EV at these things, and with the payout structure benefiting 15.6% of the field instead of 10%, and the fact you only have to go through 38 players to cash instead of 162, I think these are a more viable option to pursue.
Another aspect I am looking at is the buy-in. I don't think I'm going to win enough playing the $11 games on PokerStars to make me want to play this MTT SNG format instead of something else. The problem is there aren't that many $27 games running at a time. However, Full Tilt has an abundance of games at the $22 level, so I am currently intending to move my roll over to Full Tilt and give their 45 man games a shot. Or at least mix them in with the games on Stars. There are also 90 man Knockout tournaments on Full Tilt, where you get a bounty for eliminating each player. I might experiment around with these too, as perhaps the bounty element helps to reduce variance a bit.
So still more experimenting to be done. 45 mans could be the way forward, but I shall have to see. I do know that if I had to pay into a swear jar whilst playing these MTT SNGs that there would be no point! Even if I was paying a penny for each time I told my opponent/PokerStars/poker in general to f*** off it could make it negative EV! Perhaps there's a swear jar affiliate who could hook me up with a good "swearback" deal?