June 18, 2009

Where to go with this?... (MTT SNG days 3 & 4)

As you can tell from the graph at the bottom of this post, I've been having a bit of a torrid time of it the last couple of days. These games are so high variance. I thought about jacking it all in at least twice, but every time I was near that point I would get some donkey gift me the chip lead in a tournament and think "surely this will be profitable in the long run"

I am no better off financially than I was at the end of day 1, and at the end of day 2, which really sucks considering I have put a decent number of hours in. However I have been able to draw some conclusions over the last couple of days...

I am exactly at $0 profit and 0% ROI for the 180 man games; I have run really bad in these, and whenever I've had a sniff of a deep cash I've got screwed over with 2 tables left or something. I have decided that the 180 mans are just too high variance for me. I like steady profit curves, which is why I think my roots are in Heads Up STTs, where variance isn't too bad. This experiment is essentially about finding a steady income to pay the bills that is an alternative to Heads Up SNGs, and to find a game where I feel I can put more hours in. I am getting a good number of 2/3 sessions in, and playing a solid 10 or 11 tables at a time without getting bored, which is good.

Although I don't think I can deal with the 180 man swings, I have got a 25% ROI in the 45 man tournaments I have played, which from research I have done seems to be a very solid winrate. Obviously 160 games is still a small sample, but I think I can safely say I'm +EV at these things, and with the payout structure benefiting 15.6% of the field instead of 10%, and the fact you only have to go through 38 players to cash instead of 162, I think these are a more viable option to pursue.

Another aspect I am looking at is the buy-in. I don't think I'm going to win enough playing the $11 games on PokerStars to make me want to play this MTT SNG format instead of something else. The problem is there aren't that many $27 games running at a time. However, Full Tilt has an abundance of games at the $22 level, so I am currently intending to move my roll over to Full Tilt and give their 45 man games a shot. Or at least mix them in with the games on Stars. There are also 90 man Knockout tournaments on Full Tilt, where you get a bounty for eliminating each player. I might experiment around with these too, as perhaps the bounty element helps to reduce variance a bit.

So still more experimenting to be done. 45 mans could be the way forward, but I shall have to see. I do know that if I had to pay into a swear jar whilst playing these MTT SNGs that there would be no point! Even if I was paying a penny for each time I told my opponent/PokerStars/poker in general to f*** off it could make it negative EV! Perhaps there's a swear jar affiliate who could hook me up with a good "swearback" deal?

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4 Comments to "Where to go with this?... (MTT SNG days 3 & 4)"

Amatay said...

160 is such a small sample m8. u can draw NO conclusions about your game and success/failures after having played this number of games. Varience blinds us all sometimes. Have another look after 500 games although i think 2000 games are needed to start getting some idea imo, gl

Unknown said...

Okay man, good point. I've only used games so far to conclude that I shoudl go with the 45 mans, do you think this is a bad decision?

Anonymous said...

The 45 mans are LOL bad, I keep saying I'm going to grind them but then never bother to do so.

Have you watched the video by The Lipo Fund who used to kill these games?

Amatay said...

its just can't make a decision based on such a small sample that's all